Ichimoku Cloud strategy — on every asset
The Ichimoku 'Kumo' (cloud) is a band built from midpoints of past highs and lows, displaced forward so it derives only from past data. The signature rule: go long while price trades ABOVE the cloud (a bullish regime), exit when it closes BELOW it; inside the cloud is a neutral zone that holds the prior state. A trend/regime filter — it lags turns by design and can sit out or whipsaw around the cloud in choppy markets.
Read the honest study: Does Ichimoku actually work? An honest backtest across every famous asset
An illustration of where the rule triggers — not real prices, and not a signal to act. The dashed forks mean the outcome is undetermined; whether the rule made money is what a backtest measures.
Through a sustained one-way move — By construction it holds while price stays above the displaced cloud and sits neutral inside it, re-deciding only on a close beyond the cloud.
In a choppy, sideways range — Around a flat cloud price crosses in and out repeatedly — it whipsaws, and because the cloud is built from past data it lags every real turn by design.
Whether that behaviour produced excess return on your asset over your window is exactly what your backtest measures — we publish no profit claims.
How it works — step by step
- • Entry — Go long when price trades above the displaced cloud.
- • Exit — Go flat when price closes below the cloud; inside the cloud is a neutral zone that holds the prior state.
- • Fills, scoring & data — Every backtest fills at the next real open and scores on the real price against a real buy-and-hold, never a smoothed or derived series.
Most of these did not beat buy & hold — but a real few did, and finding out which is the whole point. This one strategy was tested on 91 different assets. With that many attempts, some will beat buy & hold by chance alone — which is why these are listed neutrally, not ranked by which ones came out ahead. To see whether any single result survives scrutiny, run the out-of-sample, walk-forward and multiple-testing checks on its backtest.
Of the 91 with enough data to judge, 25 beat buy & hold. Results are simulated backtests over the last ~5 years (less for younger assets), shown whole — losses included — not live or future performance. These are famous names that still trade today. Names that delisted, went bankrupt or were wound down aren't in the set (survivorship bias) — and that history isn't available from the free public data this tool runs on — so this rate isn't a representative base rate for every stock or ETF that has ever traded.
Listed in a neutral catalog order — not ranked by performance. Combinations we can't judge yet — too little data — are grouped separately below.
Here, “beat” means only a higher total return than buy & hold over this one past window — not risk-adjusted, not luck-checked. The out-of-sample, walk-forward and luck checks live on each individual backtest.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This is an educational, analytical tool — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. You make all decisions and execute on your own broker.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
On the 91 assets with enough data to judge, the same rule swung from +137 pts vs buy & hold on Solana to -1140 pts on Micron Technology. The typical (median) result was -40.1 pts — and even across these runs, the deepest drawdown you'd have sat through was -82% on Polkadot.
That range is the whole point: one rule is not universally good or bad — it depends entirely on the asset, and with 91 tried, some beat by chance. Shown to reveal the variation, not to pick one to trade.
Ichimoku Cloud on stocks
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
Ichimoku Cloud on etfs
Ichimoku Cloud on commodities
Ichimoku Cloud on crypto
Backtesting is one stage of preparing to trade, not the finish line. The full discipline runs five: Understand, Test, Stress-test, Forward-test, then Decide — eyes open. The rare idea that survives all five is the one worth taking into the market with your eyes open — and every stage before it is a place to stop, for free, as most ideas wash out in the first three. Finding that rare idea before you risk a cent is the whole point.