Stratsemble
The Hunt

How the Hunt grades

The Hunt grades every name in the sandbox universe on the same plain checks — business quality first — and sorts them into quality tiers. It is a grade to test yourself, a screener you operate — never a buy list and never a forecast of return.

The checks

The four checks

The same four, on every name, every day.

Business — does the company turn a profit and carry its debt?

Graded SOUND / FLAGGED / UNPROVEN from the figures the company files (cash flow, margins, debt, return on capital), sector-aware. A name we can't grade from the data is marked UNGRADED, never guessed; a fund or commodity, which has no company behind it, is marked not-applicable.

Trend — going up, sideways, or falling off a cliff?

Read from the name's distance to its own 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages. Trading clear of all of them reads CLEAN; in free-fall, or stretched far above them, reads BAD (chasing a name there is the classic way to buy the top).

Move — is a +12% move within reach soon?

Over the next ~60 trading days, whether the name's own recent volatility puts a +12% move within reach. A NEAR-shelf check only. It describes how much the name tends to move — not the odds that a move pays off.

Gap — is it below a higher number it actually reached?

Whether it trades meaningfully below its OWN 1-year high — a price the market actually traded, a plain fact. A FAR-shelf check. We never use a third-party analyst price target: attributing one would imply an endorsement we don't have.

The grade

What a rung means

A rung is a quality tier, strongest first (Top Shelf → Bottom Shelf). Business quality sets it: a name whose business hasn't been shown sound sits near the bottom whatever its chart, and the top tiers need a sound business and a clean trend. It is a grade of quality, not an order of how likely a move is — the default view groups names by this grade, and you can re-sort them however helps.

A rung is a quality grade — the tier a name earns on our checks, business quality first — not a forecast that it will rise. We group by grade, never by how likely a move is.

A name's 1-year high is a price the market actually traded — a plain fact, not a forecast and not a price target.

The shelves

Two shelves

Quick move

Names that set up cleanly for a quick +12% move — judged on business, trend, and how fast the name tends to move. Speed is the defining check here.

Back toward its high

Names that set up to work back toward their own 1-year high — judged on business, trend, and the size of the gap. Speed isn't tested here.

The measurement

Why we don't rank by how many methods agree

The obvious way to rank a screener is “more methods agree → stronger.” We measured that on our own strategies across ten years of data, and we refuse to do it. Here is exactly what the measurement found:

  1. The methods aren't independent. Measuring how our strategies fire together, the trend and breakout methods collapse into ONE family — so “N methods agree” counts the same bet many times over, not many separate opinions.
  2. More agreement did NOT mark a better result — it leaned negative at every horizon we tested, never positive. At our primary three-month horizon the interval barely included zero; at six months it excluded zero, though that six-month window is also the most thinly-powered. The direction, not any single cell, is what the decision rests on.
  3. The more of the trend family firing on a name — the “strongly-extended” signature — the WORSE it tended to do next (about −2.2 percentage points at three months, interval excluding zero). This reproduces an out-of-sample audit from the system we ported.
  4. A “how well-tested” sort carried no forward content either — it leaned slightly negative too.

So the Hunt never sorts by agreement. It groups names by the quality grade and lets you re-sort on plain facts. We measured our own “more methods agreeing means stronger” signal, found it doesn't hold, and refuse to rank by it — and we publish that measurement. That refusal is the point.

The limits

What this grade is not

  • Graded only on names in the sandbox universe today — names that failed or delisted aren't here, so the picture flatters the survivors.
  • One market, graded on one day's data. A grade is a snapshot, not a track record.
  • The measurement behind the no-ranking decision has thin statistical power (about 18 independent long-horizon windows in ten years). The direction — never positive — is robust across several independent checks, but a precise effect size is not pinned down.
  • Crypto can't validate findings drawn from stocks, so the agreement signal is suppressed there: a stock-derived posture never orders a crypto row.

Not advice to buy, sell, or size anything. The checks are mechanical; what you do with them is your own call.

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