The Scorecard

How the names that made the grade have actually done

A tip sheet shows you a number on day one. We show the number only once it has earned the right to be shown — and right now it has not, so we do not. Here is the method, in full, and where the record stands as it fills.

Our honest prior

Our honest prior is NO edge. An earlier test of the ladder's strength signal was not predictive, and making the grade is a quality screen — business first — not a prediction that a name will rise. This page is the first direct check of whether making the grade sorts the names that go on to differ from the ones that fall short. Until the record says otherwise, treat the answer as: no difference we can stand behind.

Where the record stands today

Recording is under way. Below is the count of calls frozen so far, how many have matured, how many were set aside because a name left or its data was unavailable, and the point at which each shelf earns the right to show a figure.

The quick-move shelf

63-trading-day window

Still recording. The first 63-trading-day windows have not closed yet — nothing has matured, so there is no figure to show.

frozen, still maturing: 0
matured: 0
kept as the adverse outcome (a name delisted): 0
set aside (data unavailable — counted against us, never dropped): 0

The own-it-to-a-higher-number shelf

252-trading-day window

Still recording. The first 252-trading-day windows have not closed yet — nothing has matured, so there is no figure to show.

frozen, still maturing: 0
matured: 0
kept as the adverse outcome (a name delisted): 0
set aside (data unavailable — counted against us, never dropped): 0

Publishing an honest record that may well say 'no difference' is the point. A record we would stand behind even when it is unflattering is the opposite of a tip sheet — and it is why 'made the grade' is a quality read, not a sales pitch.

What this measures

For every name that makes the grade, we freeze the date and watch what happens over the window its shelf is about. We compare that, over the identical stretch, to a matched set of names graded the same night that fell a tier short. The question is narrow and two-sided: did the names that made the grade go on to differ, as a group, from the ones that did not — or not? Because both sets ride the same market over the same days, a rising or falling market moves both, so what is left is the separation between them, not the weather.

No peeking, and nothing can quietly vanish

Each call is frozen the night it is made, from the data the grade actually saw; what happens next is read only from days that came after. A name that later leaves the list, or delists, still counts — its outcome is kept, never quietly removed — so a disappointing call can't slip out of the record. A call still too young to judge is shown as exactly that, never folded in early.

Why there is often no number

We hold back any figure until enough INDEPENDENT calls — spread across enough different market stretches — have fully matured. A handful of calls, or a run of them all in one kind of market, cannot separate a real pattern from one stretch's luck, so we show the count and the wait instead. The bar is set to catch only a large separation early; a small one, in either direction, will honestly read as 'nothing we can stand behind' for a long time.

If a number ever appears, it is two-sided

Any figure here is a rate, or a difference against that matched set — never a money total, never a running tally, never a hypothetical dollar outcome. It is always shown with its downside beside it: how often it went the other way, and the worst of it. We report the whole picture about the names, as a group — never a claim about any single one, and never, by itself, a reason to buy or sell.

How the Desk reads a name →

A standing disclosure

The person behind this site trades the same universe of names through his own separate system, so he is not a disinterested party. This record is impersonal — identical for everyone, never tailored to you — and it is never a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold.

This is a published record about a method, not advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or size anything — what you do with it is your own call, on your own broker.

How this is computed → (closed-bar, costs on, vs buy & hold — the full method.)

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This is an educational, analytical tool — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. You make all decisions and execute on your own broker.

Hypothetical performance disclaimer (CFTC Rule 4.41)

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.