Parabolic SAR strategy — on every asset
Wilder's Parabolic SAR places a trailing 'stop and reverse' dot that accelerates toward price as a trend runs; when price crosses it, the trend flips. Go long while it reads up-trend, flat when it flips down. A volatility-adaptive trend follower — it trails winners closely but reverses often, so it whipsaws in sideways markets and gives back part of a move at each flip.
An illustration of where the rule triggers — not real prices, and not a signal to act. The dashed forks mean the outcome is undetermined; whether the rule made money is what a backtest measures.
Through a sustained one-way move — By construction the accelerating dot tightens toward price each bar, so it trails a move closely, exits fast, and re-enters often.
In a choppy, sideways range — In a sideways range the tightening dot is crossed constantly — it flips in and out and gives back part of a move at each reversal (whipsaw).
Whether that behaviour produced excess return on your asset over your window is exactly what your backtest measures — we publish no profit claims.
How it works — step by step
- • Entry — Go long when price crosses above the SAR dot (it flips to an up-trend reading).
- • Exit — Go flat when price crosses below the accelerating dot.
- • Fills, scoring & data — Every backtest fills at the next real open and scores on the real price against a real buy-and-hold, never a smoothed or derived series.
Most of these did not beat buy & hold — but a real few did, and finding out which is the whole point. This one strategy was tested on 91 different assets. With that many attempts, some will beat buy & hold by chance alone — which is why these are listed neutrally, not ranked by which ones came out ahead. To see whether any single result survives scrutiny, run the out-of-sample, walk-forward and multiple-testing checks on its backtest.
Of the 91 with enough data to judge, 19 beat buy & hold. Results are simulated backtests over the last ~5 years (less for younger assets), shown whole — losses included — not live or future performance. These are famous names that still trade today. Names that delisted, went bankrupt or were wound down aren't in the set (survivorship bias) — and that history isn't available from the free public data this tool runs on — so this rate isn't a representative base rate for every stock or ETF that has ever traded.
Listed in a neutral catalog order — not ranked by performance. Combinations we can't judge yet — too little data — are grouped separately below.
Here, “beat” means only a higher total return than buy & hold over this one past window — not risk-adjusted, not luck-checked. The out-of-sample, walk-forward and luck checks live on each individual backtest.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This is an educational, analytical tool — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. You make all decisions and execute on your own broker.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
On the 91 assets with enough data to judge, the same rule swung from +490 pts vs buy & hold on Solana to -996 pts on Micron Technology. The typical (median) result was -49.5 pts — and even across these runs, the deepest drawdown you'd have sat through was -88% on Coinbase.
That range is the whole point: one rule is not universally good or bad — it depends entirely on the asset, and with 91 tried, some beat by chance. Shown to reveal the variation, not to pick one to trade.
Parabolic SAR on stocks
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
Parabolic SAR on etfs
Parabolic SAR on commodities
Parabolic SAR on crypto
Backtesting is one stage of preparing to trade, not the finish line. The full discipline runs five: Understand, Test, Stress-test, Forward-test, then Decide — eyes open. The rare idea that survives all five is the one worth taking into the market with your eyes open — and every stage before it is a place to stop, for free, as most ideas wash out in the first three. Finding that rare idea before you risk a cent is the whole point.