TTM Squeeze strategy — on every asset
A volatility compression rule. When the Bollinger Bands sit entirely inside the Keltner Channels — both drawn around the same simple moving average, the bands measured in standard deviations and the channel in average true range — realized volatility is low (a 'squeeze'). The rule buys the bar the squeeze releases, as the bands expand back outside the channel, while a linear-regression reading of recent momentum is positive; it goes flat when the squeeze re-forms or that momentum is no longer positive. Pure volatility and price geometry — it describes how tight the range has been and which way price is leaning, with no claim about what comes next. Only the upward release is taken.
Read the honest study: Does the TTM Squeeze actually work? An honest backtest across every famous asset
Through a sustained one-way move — By construction it waits for a compressed range to release with upward momentum and then holds until the range compresses again or that momentum turns down, so one release is carried through an extended move while another exits as momentum fades.
In a choppy, sideways range — A squeeze is only a description of low past volatility, not a prediction of direction or of how large a move follows: a release can be a false one that reverses, and the momentum reading can whipsaw at the band edge, buying a turn that was really the start of a move down. Only the upward release is taken, though a squeeze resolves either way. Mechanically buying every release churns many trades and, once costs are counted, this rule usually lags simply holding.
Whether that behaviour produced excess return on your asset over your window is exactly what your backtest measures — we publish no profit claims.
How it works — step by step
- • Squeeze — The squeeze is on while the Bollinger Bands sit entirely inside the Keltner Channels — a standard-deviation width narrower than an average-true-range width, both around one simple moving average.
- • Entry — Go long on the bar the squeeze releases — the bands expand back outside the channel — while a linear-regression reading of recent momentum is positive.
- • Exit — Go flat when the squeeze re-forms or that momentum reading is no longer positive.
- • Fills, scoring & data — Every backtest fills at the next real open and scores on the real price against a real buy-and-hold, never a smoothed or derived series; the bands, channel and momentum are all read from closed bars, and the entry fills at the next real open, not on the release bar itself.
Most of these did not beat buy & hold — but a real few did, and finding out which is the whole point. This one strategy was tested on 47 different assets. With that many attempts, some will beat buy & hold by chance alone — which is why these are listed neutrally, not ranked by which ones came out ahead. To see whether any single result survives scrutiny, run the out-of-sample, walk-forward and multiple-testing checks on its backtest.
Of the 47 with enough data to judge, 10 beat buy & hold. Results are simulated backtests over the last ~5 years (less for younger assets), shown whole — losses included — not live or future performance. These are famous names that still trade today. Names that delisted, went bankrupt or were wound down aren't in the set (survivorship bias) — and that history isn't available from the free public data this tool runs on — so this rate isn't a representative base rate for every stock or ETF that has ever traded.
Listed in a neutral catalog order — not ranked by performance. Combinations we can't judge yet — too little data — are grouped separately below.
Here, “beat” means only a higher total return than buy & hold over this one past window — not risk-adjusted, not luck-checked. The out-of-sample, walk-forward and luck checks live on each individual backtest.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This is an educational, analytical tool — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. You make all decisions and execute on your own broker.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
On the 47 assets with enough data to judge, the same rule swung from +170 pts vs buy & hold on Dogecoin to -1121 pts on Nvidia. The typical (median) result was -68.5 pts — and even across these runs, the deepest drawdown you'd have sat through was -80% on Chainlink.
That range is the whole point: one rule is not universally good or bad — it depends entirely on the asset, and with 47 tried, some beat by chance. Shown to reveal the variation, not to pick one to trade.
TTM Squeeze on stocks
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
TTM Squeeze on etfs
TTM Squeeze on commodities
TTM Squeeze on crypto
Backtesting is one stage of preparing to trade, not the finish line. The full discipline runs five: Understand, Test, Stress-test, Forward-test, then Decide — eyes open. Most ideas should wash out in the first three, and every stage is a place to stop, for free — but the rare idea that survives all five is the one worth taking into the market with your eyes open, and finding it before you risk a cent is the whole point.