Does the Time-Series Momentum strategy beat buy & hold on Adobe? (ADBE · backtested honestly)
Time-series (absolute) momentum measures the asset against itself, not a ranking: it compares the asset's own trailing 12-month return (skipping the last ~month) to its own history.
Over this period, Time-Series Momentum on Adobe returned -11.0%, while simply buying and holding returned -58.1%. On just 1 trade, that's too thin to call a real edge — this result isn't scored a win or a loss. For the record it finished 47.1 points above buy & hold over this one window, with a worst drawdown of -27.1%; it traded 1 times and sat in cash about 87% of the time. It's a mechanism you test — not a recommendation.
There isn't enough here to tell a signal from luck — too few trades or too little history. The honest fix is a longer window or a strategy that trades more, so there's a judgeable sample — not more tweaking, which only adds shots at luck. Until then, treat this as unscored — not a win, not a loss.
Run it yourself
Change the parameters and the window, then re-run — no account needed.
Change the rules? Open the Time-Series Momentum rules on Adobe in the no-code builder — the same rules tested here — and make them your own.
Open in the builder →A live badge that re-runs itself and links back here. Free to embed on any blog, newsletter or forum — it shows the honest result, beat or lagged.
<iframe src="https://stratsemble.com/embed/adobe-momentum-backtest" width="360" height="340" style="border:0;border-radius:12px;max-width:100%" loading="lazy" title="Does the Time-Series Momentum strategy beat buy & hold on Adobe?"></iframe>- • The strategy line is Time-Series Momentum on Adobe; the dashed line is simply buying and holding ADBE. Beating the dashed line is the whole point — many strategies don't.
- • Max drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough fall you'd have sat through. A higher return with a much deeper drawdown is not obviously better.
- • Every fill assumes next-open execution with costs & slippage on — no acting on prices you couldn't have known.
- • A small number of trades means a small sample. Treat a great-looking result on a handful of trades with suspicion.
This is a hypothetical backtest of a well-known mechanism on past data. It is not advice, not a prediction, and not a claim that the strategy works. I hold no funds and place no orders. The value here is the ability to test an idea honestly — see where it would have helped, and where it would have hurt — before you ever risk real money on your own broker.
How this is computed → · who's behind it · where a backtest fits
See what actually beats buy & hold — most don't, here are the rare few that do →