Heikin-Ashi Trend strategy — on every asset
Heikin-Ashi ("average bar") redraws each candle from an average of the open, high, low and close and the prior candle's own averaged values, so the chart looks smoother and the trends look calmer. This rule goes long while the Heikin-Ashi candle is bullish — its averaged close above its averaged open — and steps aside when it turns bearish. The smoothing is cosmetic: it is the same price data averaged twice, which adds lag, not information, so entries and exits come late; in a strong trend it stays in for long stretches and can look close to simply buying and holding, and in choppy markets the colour flips back and forth and whipsaws. A smooth Heikin-Ashi chart does not mean smaller risk — the averaged candles hide the real intraday drawdown, so the calm-looking chart is not the account you would have lived through. The Heikin-Ashi candles are a smoothed view only: every backtest here fills at the real next open, marks and scores on the real price, and compares against a real buy-and-hold, never the smoothed candle. A trend/regime rule to test — the smoother candles are cosmetic, not an edge or a lower-risk trade.
Read the honest study: Does Heikin-Ashi actually work? An honest backtest across every famous asset
Through a sustained one-way move — By construction it stays long while the averaged candle reads bullish and steps aside when it turns bearish — a smoothed trend read.
In a choppy, sideways range — The averaging adds lag, not information, so entries and exits come late; the averaged candles hide the real intraday drawdown, so the calm chart is not the real account, and the colour whipsaws in choppy markets.
Whether that behaviour produced excess return on your asset over your window is exactly what your backtest measures — we publish no profit claims.
How it works — step by step
- • Entry — Go long while the Heikin-Ashi candle is bullish (its averaged close above its averaged open).
- • Exit — Go flat when the candle turns bearish.
- • Fills, scoring & data — Every backtest fills at the next real open and scores on the real price against a real buy-and-hold, never a smoothed or derived series; fills, marks and the benchmark all use the real price, never the smoothed candle, and a NaN warm-up sits flat rather than fabricating a reading.
Most of these did not beat buy & hold — but a real few did, and finding out which is the whole point. This one strategy was tested on 91 different assets. With that many attempts, some will beat buy & hold by chance alone — which is why these are listed neutrally, not ranked by which ones came out ahead. To see whether any single result survives scrutiny, run the out-of-sample, walk-forward and multiple-testing checks on its backtest.
Of the 91 with enough data to judge, 18 beat buy & hold. Results are simulated backtests over the last ~5 years (less for younger assets), shown whole — losses included — not live or future performance. These are famous names that still trade today. Names that delisted, went bankrupt or were wound down aren't in the set (survivorship bias) — and that history isn't available from the free public data this tool runs on — so this rate isn't a representative base rate for every stock or ETF that has ever traded.
Listed in a neutral catalog order — not ranked by performance. Combinations we can't judge yet — too little data — are grouped separately below.
Here, “beat” means only a higher total return than buy & hold over this one past window — not risk-adjusted, not luck-checked. The out-of-sample, walk-forward and luck checks live on each individual backtest.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. This is an educational, analytical tool — not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. You make all decisions and execute on your own broker.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
On the 91 assets with enough data to judge, the same rule swung from +392 pts vs buy & hold on Solana to -745 pts on Nvidia. The typical (median) result was -59.9 pts — and even across these runs, the deepest drawdown you'd have sat through was -94% on Polkadot.
That range is the whole point: one rule is not universally good or bad — it depends entirely on the asset, and with 91 tried, some beat by chance. Shown to reveal the variation, not to pick one to trade.
Heikin-Ashi Trend on stocks
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
Heikin-Ashi Trend on etfs
Heikin-Ashi Trend on commodities
Heikin-Ashi Trend on crypto
Razor-thin margin — effectively a tie.
Backtesting is one stage of preparing to trade, not the finish line. The full discipline runs five: Understand, Test, Stress-test, Forward-test, then Decide — eyes open. The rare idea that survives all five is the one worth taking into the market with your eyes open — and every stage before it is a place to stop, for free, as most ideas wash out in the first three. Finding that rare idea before you risk a cent is the whole point.