{
  "meta": {
    "id": "2026-09-25",
    "version": 1,
    "dataAsOf": "2026-09-25",
    "windowStart": "2021-09-26",
    "windowEnd": "2026-09-25",
    "windowYears": 5,
    "slice": "stocks",
    "sliceLabel": "liquid US stocks & ETFs",
    "knobs": {
      "beatMargin": 0,
      "thinMinTrades": 3,
      "thinMinYears": 2
    },
    "costModel": "0.05% per side, next-bar fills, costs and slippage on, no look-ahead",
    "benchmark": "each asset's own buy & hold",
    "engineCommit": "10ceb32",
    "methodologyRev": 1,
    "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
    "licenseUrl": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "attribution": "Stratsemble, \"The Honest Backtest Census: How Often Famous Strategies Beat Buy & Hold\" (Release 2026-09-25), CC BY 4.0, https://stratsemble.com/methodology/census/2026-09-25",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://stratsemble.com/methodology/census/2026-09-25",
    "conceptDoi": "10.5281/zenodo.22974115",
    "versionDoi": "10.5281/zenodo.22974116"
  },
  "tables": {
    "by_asset_class": [
      {
        "asset_class": "stocks",
        "n_eligible": 839,
        "n_beat": 118,
        "n_lagged": 721,
        "n_thin_excluded": 61,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "data_as_of": "2026-09-25",
        "window_years": 5,
        "note": "the headline figure (composition-stable)"
      },
      {
        "asset_class": "crypto",
        "n_eligible": 257,
        "n_beat": 165,
        "n_lagged": 92,
        "n_thin_excluded": 18,
        "pct_beat": 64,
        "pct_failed": 36,
        "data_as_of": "2026-09-24",
        "window_years": 5,
        "note": "context only — a small, volatile, survivorship-biased sample; an overfitting artifact, not a demonstrated edge; not significance-tested"
      },
      {
        "asset_class": "all",
        "n_eligible": 1096,
        "n_beat": 283,
        "n_lagged": 813,
        "n_thin_excluded": 79,
        "pct_beat": 26,
        "pct_failed": 74,
        "data_as_of": "2026-09-25",
        "window_years": 5,
        "note": "context only — a small, volatile, survivorship-biased sample; an overfitting artifact, not a demonstrated edge; not significance-tested"
      }
    ],
    "by_strategy": [
      {
        "strategy_slug": "200-day-ma",
        "strategy_name": "200-Day MA Regime",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 11,
        "n_lagged": 25,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 31,
        "pct_failed": 69,
        "median_excess_return": -0.2187,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "52-week-high",
        "strategy_name": "52-Week High Breakout",
        "n_eligible": 30,
        "n_beat": 2,
        "n_lagged": 28,
        "n_thin_excluded": 6,
        "pct_beat": 7,
        "pct_failed": 93,
        "median_excess_return": -0.7699,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "adx",
        "strategy_name": "ADX / DMI Trend",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 6,
        "n_lagged": 30,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 17,
        "pct_failed": 83,
        "median_excess_return": -0.8099,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "aroon",
        "strategy_name": "Aroon",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 5,
        "n_lagged": 31,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.4902,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "awesome-oscillator",
        "strategy_name": "Awesome Oscillator",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 5,
        "n_lagged": 31,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.5438,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "bollinger-breakout",
        "strategy_name": "Bollinger Band Breakout",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 5,
        "n_lagged": 31,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.6856,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "bollinger-reversion",
        "strategy_name": "Bollinger Band Reversion",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 3,
        "n_lagged": 33,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 8,
        "pct_failed": 92,
        "median_excess_return": -0.7048,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "cci",
        "strategy_name": "Commodity Channel Index",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 4,
        "n_lagged": 32,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 11,
        "pct_failed": 89,
        "median_excess_return": -0.6568,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "cmf",
        "strategy_name": "Chaikin Money Flow",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 3,
        "n_lagged": 33,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 8,
        "pct_failed": 92,
        "median_excess_return": -0.7952,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "connors-rsi2",
        "strategy_name": "Connors RSI-2",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 4,
        "n_lagged": 32,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 11,
        "pct_failed": 89,
        "median_excess_return": -0.7328,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "donchian-breakout",
        "strategy_name": "Donchian Breakout",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 5,
        "n_lagged": 31,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.5409,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "heikin-ashi",
        "strategy_name": "Heikin-Ashi Trend",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 3,
        "n_lagged": 33,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 8,
        "pct_failed": 92,
        "median_excess_return": -0.8379,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "ichimoku",
        "strategy_name": "Ichimoku Cloud",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 4,
        "n_lagged": 32,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 11,
        "pct_failed": 89,
        "median_excess_return": -0.6363,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "keltner-breakout",
        "strategy_name": "Keltner Channel Breakout",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 6,
        "n_lagged": 30,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 17,
        "pct_failed": 83,
        "median_excess_return": -0.7477,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "macd",
        "strategy_name": "MACD",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 5,
        "n_lagged": 31,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.7466,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "mfi",
        "strategy_name": "Money Flow Index",
        "n_eligible": 30,
        "n_beat": 6,
        "n_lagged": 24,
        "n_thin_excluded": 6,
        "pct_beat": 20,
        "pct_failed": 80,
        "median_excess_return": -0.4591,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "momentum",
        "strategy_name": "Time-Series Momentum",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 9,
        "n_lagged": 27,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 25,
        "pct_failed": 75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.3613,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "moving-average-crossover",
        "strategy_name": "Moving Average Crossover",
        "n_eligible": 23,
        "n_beat": 2,
        "n_lagged": 21,
        "n_thin_excluded": 13,
        "pct_beat": 9,
        "pct_failed": 91,
        "median_excess_return": -0.424,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "obv",
        "strategy_name": "On-Balance Volume",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 7,
        "n_lagged": 29,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 19,
        "pct_failed": 81,
        "median_excess_return": -0.6881,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "parabolic-sar",
        "strategy_name": "Parabolic SAR",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 4,
        "n_lagged": 32,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 11,
        "pct_failed": 89,
        "median_excess_return": -0.8428,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "rsi",
        "strategy_name": "RSI Reversion",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 5,
        "n_lagged": 31,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.7707,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "stoch-rsi",
        "strategy_name": "Stochastic RSI",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 5,
        "n_lagged": 31,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 14,
        "pct_failed": 86,
        "median_excess_return": -0.4671,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "stochastic",
        "strategy_name": "Stochastic Oscillator",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 6,
        "n_lagged": 30,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 17,
        "pct_failed": 83,
        "median_excess_return": -0.6471,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "supertrend",
        "strategy_name": "SuperTrend",
        "n_eligible": 0,
        "n_beat": 0,
        "n_lagged": 0,
        "n_thin_excluded": 36,
        "pct_beat": 0,
        "pct_failed": 0,
        "median_excess_return": null,
        "low_sample_flag": true
      },
      {
        "strategy_slug": "vortex",
        "strategy_name": "Vortex Indicator",
        "n_eligible": 36,
        "n_beat": 3,
        "n_lagged": 33,
        "n_thin_excluded": 0,
        "pct_beat": 8,
        "pct_failed": 92,
        "median_excess_return": -0.73,
        "low_sample_flag": false
      }
    ],
    "drawdown_summary": [
      {
        "slice": "stocks",
        "series": "strategy",
        "min": -0.8786,
        "p5": -0.6074,
        "p10": -0.5272,
        "p25": -0.4029,
        "p50": -0.2736,
        "p75": -0.1857,
        "p90": -0.1386,
        "p95": -0.1088,
        "max": -0.0536
      },
      {
        "slice": "stocks",
        "series": "buy_and_hold",
        "min": -0.909,
        "p5": -0.7816,
        "p10": -0.7485,
        "p25": -0.555,
        "p50": -0.3512,
        "p75": -0.2595,
        "p90": -0.2075,
        "p95": -0.1844,
        "max": -0.1728
      },
      {
        "slice": "crypto",
        "series": "strategy",
        "min": -0.9806,
        "p5": -0.8969,
        "p10": -0.8536,
        "p25": -0.7869,
        "p50": -0.6752,
        "p75": -0.5405,
        "p90": -0.4279,
        "p95": -0.3461,
        "max": -0.2101
      },
      {
        "slice": "crypto",
        "series": "buy_and_hold",
        "min": -0.9861,
        "p5": -0.9861,
        "p10": -0.9627,
        "p25": -0.9561,
        "p50": -0.8531,
        "p75": -0.7663,
        "p90": -0.7598,
        "p95": -0.6989,
        "max": -0.6989
      },
      {
        "slice": "all",
        "series": "strategy",
        "min": -0.9806,
        "p5": -0.7992,
        "p10": -0.7272,
        "p25": -0.5371,
        "p50": -0.3344,
        "p75": -0.2097,
        "p90": -0.1496,
        "p95": -0.1233,
        "max": -0.0536
      },
      {
        "slice": "all",
        "series": "buy_and_hold",
        "min": -0.9861,
        "p5": -0.9561,
        "p10": -0.909,
        "p25": -0.7598,
        "p50": -0.453,
        "p75": -0.2658,
        "p90": -0.2413,
        "p95": -0.2051,
        "max": -0.1728
      }
    ]
  },
  "citation": {
    "sentence": "As of September 25, 2026, 25 famous, named trading strategies were each backtested on 36 liquid US stocks & ETFs — 900 strategy-asset combinations, of which 839 had enough trades to judge (61 were too thin and excluded). Of those judged, about 86% failed to beat simply buying and holding the same asset over the same 5-year window — net of costs and slippage, with no look-ahead. This is a survivorship-biased set of well-known assets, measured over the full period with no out-of-sample split, against each asset's own buy & hold, and is not significance-tested.",
    "apa": "Stratsemble. (2026). The Honest Backtest Census: How Often Famous Strategies Beat Buy & Hold (liquid US stocks & ETFs; as of September 25, 2026). https://stratsemble.com/methodology/census/2026-09-25",
    "bibtex": "@misc{stratsemble_census_20260925,\n  author       = {{Stratsemble}},\n  title        = {The Honest Backtest Census: How Often Famous Strategies Beat Buy \\& Hold},\n  year         = {2026},\n  note         = {liquid US stocks \\& ETFs; as of September 25, 2026, n = 839 judged backtests, 5-year window},\n  howpublished = {\\url{https://stratsemble.com/methodology/census/2026-09-25}}\n}",
    "attribution": "Stratsemble, \"The Honest Backtest Census: How Often Famous Strategies Beat Buy & Hold\" (Release 2026-09-25), CC BY 4.0, https://stratsemble.com/methodology/census/2026-09-25"
  }
}